Gradually, then suddenly
Here at Custodian Golf we’re passionate about golf in all its forms. As a group of golf, planning and data professionals we’re also passionate about learning from the past, using data to understand patterns and trends, and securing the future of our sport through responsible, forward-looking management. That’s why we study failure as well as success and it’s also why a key part of the Custodian Golf database (covering all clubs in Great Britain) is our list of more than 100 recently closed courses.
Through our approach, we’ve developed a better understanding of how, why and when golf courses reach the end of their life. A common characteristic of how clubs typically fail is the speed at which they do so, much like the famous line from Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises: “How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” At Custodian Golf, we believe that many clubs can avoid the ‘suddenly’ part by taking a step back, and considering different options, such as relocation, repurposing, or repositioning their offer (our 3Rs). Acting before it’s too late is the key characteristic of clubs that manage to weather the economic headwinds all too familiar across the industry. So, although we can learn from success, we can often learn even more by looking at the clubs that didn’t make it.
Why study 'failure'?
The question of why it’s a good idea to study failure as well as success can most aptly be explained with reference to a famous example from World War II when the statistician Abraham Wald used the concept of ‘survivorship bias’ to determine which parts of bomber aircraft should be reinforced in order to minimise losses.
The prevailing logic was to look at where aircraft returning from missions had the most damage – typically on the wings, fuselage and tail. This then led to the conclusion that these parts of the aircraft should be reinforced. But Abraham Wald rightly pointed out that these were the planes that actually returned to base, despite the damage. He argued that aircraft should instead be reinforced in areas where they had no damage, typically to the engines. Why? Because aircraft struck there did not survive, did not return to base and were not included in the data. By only studying the surviving aircraft, the engineers had overlooked the most important learning point and had inadvertently become victims of ‘survivorship bias’. We see this all the time in golf, where studies and reports – perhaps understandably – tend to focus on success stories and positive developments.
The work of Custodian Golf is very different from this example, but the principle of ‘survivorship bias’ is highly pertinent. That’s why we believe the golf industry needs to learn more from course failures and understand better where and how troubled clubs can be ‘reinforced’. For Custodian Golf, this typically involves one of our 3Rs: reposition, repurpose, or relocation – though the exact approach will be unique to each club.
Five features of failure
Through a combination of our existing industry knowledge, in-depth data analysis and direct engagement with clubs across the country, we believe there are at least five key features of clubs that are sadly no longer with us. Some closed clubs suffered from just one of these, whereas others experienced several of them – yet none survived.
Flooding
Flooding affects the vast majority of Golf Clubs in Great Britain at some point, yet for some it has been devastating. For example, Renishaw Park Golf Club, just south of Sheffield, was severely affected by flooding from the River Rother and in 2023 closed for good after more than 110 years of operation. Several existing clubs have also faced significant challenges due to coastal flooding and remain open, including Alnmouth Village Golf Club in the north-east of England and Royal West Norfolk Golf Club in Brancaster. With future predicted sea level rises these issues are likely to affect a growing number of coastal links.
Changing demographics
For some clubs the demographics of their catchment area have changed fundamentally and the local market is no longer able to sustain a profitable course. This is true of top-quality clubs in some of Britain’s formerly wealthy seaside towns but it is also true more widely, as our database of more than 100 closed clubs attests. One example here is Hirsel Golf Club in the Scottish Borders, which closed suddenly in 2024 after filing for bankruptcy. Once known as the ‘Augusta of the Borders’, the demographics of the membership and wider area were cited as one reason for the closure. More generally, in relation to age, our club-level data shows ageing member profiles: a median club member age of 68 for women and 58 for men.
Rising costs
At the time of writing, the UK inflation rate is a little over 2%, yet the true inflation rate golf courses incur is in reality running at more than 10%. The recent cost rises in gas and electricity as well as for materials such as sand have hit clubs hard. Yet they have also impacted members and these two-way cost pressures feed through into things like membership renewal and course conditions. There are many examples of Golf Club closures that cite financial challenges as a key factor, including Laleham Golf Club in Surrey (closed in 2017), Whitewebbs Park Golf Course in the London Borough of Enfield (2021) or Torrance Park Golf Club in Motherwell, North Lanarkshire (2024).
Competition
In some locations there is simply too much competition with other golfing facilities, and this has been a factor in the closure of several courses. For example, over half of the closed courses in our database had 25 or more other golf facilities within their 30-minute catchment area. In some areas the 1980s golf boom led to over-supply but in others a growing number of local options for golfers simply led to reduced membership numbers and downward pressure on fees. Moore Place Golf Club in Surrey, which opened in 1926, closed its doors for good in 2019 and among the reasons given were local competition: “regrettably there is little prospect of the course being made viable in the long-term given the supply and offering of other local courses”.
Local context
In addition to the issues above, there are often unique local factors that impact a club’s ability to succeed. These include increasing insurance claims from neighbours, public rights of way crossing the course, the proximity of roads and railways, poor management, lack of support from the local authority (in the case of municipals) or in some cases major infrastructure projects. One example here is Hastings & St. Leonards Golf Club in East Sussex, which closed in 2018 but even after the recent 'COVID-19 boom' clubs continue to close – including Caddington Golf Club in Bedfordshire (2024) and more recently North Oxford Golf Club has announced it will close for good in October 2025.
Get in touch
If your club is experiencing any of the issues raised here and you wish to discuss them in confidence, we’d be happy to speak to you and start a conversation.
Contact Phil Grice on 01223 776101 or phil.grice@custodiangolf.co.uk.
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